The Changing of the Guard: Myth or Reality?

We have been seeing several blog posts and message board threads pertaining to this topic since last winter. Many people seem to be wondering about who will be the "next big thing" in fantasy. Doubtless sparked by the numerous related threads on various message boards, Aidan recently wrote an article on the subject for www.sffworld.com. I've been meaning to offer my two cents since last winter, but passing the Bar sort of got in the way. So here we go!;-)

A majority of people seem to assume that there is indeed an ongoing changing of the guard among fantasy authors. Well, that's untrue. . .

While we have witnessed the emergence of some extraordinary new talents in the last couple of years, there is no way one can assume that this is indeed leading us toward a changing of the guard per se. At least not in the manner Robert Jordan and Terry Goodkind relegated David Eddings and Terry Brooks to the backseat more than a decade past, thus establishing Tor Books as the SFF powerhouse it became in the mid-90s.

In order for a veritable changing of the guard to occur, these new authors must "replace" the current heavyweights, namely Robert Jordan, Terry Goodkind, George R. R. Martin, not to mention Tolkien, whose The Children of Húrin will be the bestselling fantasy novel of the year apart from Rowling's last HP book.

Brandon Sanderson, Scott Lynch, Hal Duncan, Joe Abercrombie, Naomi Novik, Patrick Rothfuss, David Anthony Durham, Brian Ruckley -- they're all great new voices that have burst unto the scene and injected the genre with some much needed new blood. And yet, none of them have had an impact that warrants even considering the possibility of a soon-to-be changing of the guard. Still, they represent the future of the fantasy genre, and that future sure looks exciting!:-)

The lower echelons of the fantasy totem might change significantly in the coming years, but I expect the predators at the top of the food chain to remain the same. Barring health problems (I'm sincerely hoping that he still has many years of writing in front of him), Robert Jordan should maintain his position as "top dog." With 4 consecutive number 1 NYT bestsellers and with the forthcoming A Memory of Light all but assured to debut at number one on the bestseller list, Jordan is not going anywhere. Knife of Dreams sold more than 600,000 copies in hardcover in the US alone, which is more than twice than Martin's A Feast for Crows. And that was GRRM at his apogee in terms of sales. . . Yes, but the Wheel of Time is all but over, you say. Not necessarily. . . With another prequel yet to be published, in addition to the possible "outrigger" trilogy, I would bet some good money that the WoT is not over, not by a longshot! Understandably, nobody knows how well Infinity of Heaven will be received by the fans.

But consider this: Even if only 50% of RJ's fans buy that book, the author will remain the number one draw in the fantasy genre. If only 20% of his readers decide to give that new series a shot (and I can't believe in such a possibility), Jordan would still rank at number 3, standing behind only Goodkind and Martin. Even then, the novel would likely debut at number 1 on the NYT list. . .

Speaking of Terry Goodkind, Confessor will mark the end of the Sword of Truth series. Thank God and good riddance! We should count our blessings!;-) I'm secretly hoping that the Almighty Yeard, who's been pissing on fantasy for years, will try his hand at writing something "literary" -- something he claims to have been doing for more than a decade. Of course, that shit won't fly, and the idea of seeing Goodkind return to the fantasy genre with his tail between his legs is quite appealing! Nevertheless, there's no denying that he's the second biggest draw in North America when it comes to epic fantasy. And let's face it: If his fans stuck with him and allowed him to sell millions of copies of his books while Goodkind wrote such drivel, you can expect the man to remain extremely popular if he decides to produce another fantasy series (all the while bragging that he's writing about the triumph of the human spirit, of course!).

As for George R. R. Martin, A Feast for Crows debuted at number 1 on the NYT bestseller list and sold over 250,000 copies in hardcover in the USA. Expect the same kind of numbers for A Dance with Dragons. And with two additional ASOIAF volumes yet to be published, GRRM could well maintain his position among the fantasy genre's "big guns" for quite a few years. Provided ADwD is published in 2008, he could stay on top till 2013 or 2014, if the last two installments take as long to write. . .

Neil Gaiman is more of a wild card, yet any novel-length project from him should be immensely popular. Hence, he remains one of the top draws. As you can, the bestselling authors of the fantasy genre should remain the same for quite some time. . .

Who among the slew of newcomers has the best chance to join the ranks of the "elite?" Hard to say, for we may not have met him or her yet. In order to dethrone the likes of Jordan, Goodkind and Martin, we need an author who's writing something big, something ambitious, something that's more or less accessible. In my mind, there are only two likely contenders at the moment: Steven Erikson and Scott Lynch.

Unfortunately, the way Erikson is being marketed in the States precludes his rise to stardom. By promoting Jordan and Goodkind so heavily, Tor Books are forgetting about a bunch of gifted writers that are under contract with them. And that's a shame. . . Although not for everyone, I feel that Steven Erikson was never really been given a chance in the USA. With the appropriate marketing, I think that Erikson could sell as many books as authors such as Tad Williams and Robin Hobb. Alas, it's not to be. Those Godawful covers are a disgrace, no question. For Toll the Hounds next year, they should simply forgo the cover art. Instead, just put "WE REFUSE TO PUT ANY THOUGHT WHATSOEVER IN THIS NOVEL'S COVER."It can't be worst than the US cover art for The Bonehunters. . . Little by little, Steven Erikson is becoming more and more popular with each new Malazan installment. Yet by the time it will matter in the USA, the entire series will be out in paperback, thus missing the more lucrative hardcover market.

Scott Lynch appears to be in a very good position to "make it big." Imagination, action, good characterization -- The Lies of Locke Lamora and Red Seas under Red Skies have all that. All we need is a more ambitious overall story arc, and Lynch could be on the cusp of stardom. Anne Groell assured me that The Republic of Thieves should demonstrate that The Gentleman Bastard sequence is not just another caper in every volume. And yet, for Scott Lynch to take that step, Bantam Dell will have to market him much more aggressively. Gollancz bent over backward to make TLOLL a hit in the UK, but we haven't seen that kind of push in North America. Scott Lynch is a very popular figure online, but the average fantasy reader is unaware of the author's existence. So I believe that Bantam must put his name out there. . .

I'm convinced that all the aforementioned authors who have released quality debuts in the last two years or so will have successful careers. And I'm certainly looking forward to this! Having said that, I believe that Scott Lynch is -- as we speak -- the only one with the mass appeal to reach the higher echelons now occupied by Jordan and company. And who knows!?! If he can knock Goodkind off his perch, I will support him for the rest of his career by buying everything he puts out!;-)

Of course, chances are that I'm totally full of shit! We will have to wait and see. . .

My two cents!:-)